BANGKOK, March 3, 2026 – Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn warned that an escalating Middle East conflict could reduce Thailand’s GDP growth by 0.1–0.15 percentage points, citing exposure to oil-supply risks and the Strait of Hormuz shipping chokepoint.
Vitai said the estimate is based on a scenario in which oil prices rise by an average $10 per barrel over a year, a shock he said could also lift inflation by 0.4–0.5 percentage points; he noted energy accounts for roughly 13% of Thailand’s consumer price index basket.
He said oil prices had already risen by $5–$7 per barrel, and described Thailand as particularly vulnerable because it imports roughly 60% of its oil from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, with shipments transiting Hormuz.
The comments came after the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 4–2 on Feb. 25 to cut the policy rate 25 basis points from 1.25% to 1.00%, a move the Bank of Thailand said was intended to keep financial conditions supportive for recovery while acknowledging “limited monetary policy space” amid uncertainty.
The comments came after the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 4–2 on Feb. 25 to cut the policy rate 25 basis points from 1.25% to 1.00%, a move the Bank of Thailand said was intended to keep financial conditions supportive for recovery while acknowledging “limited monetary policy space” amid uncertainty.
Thailand’s energy authorities have also moved to bolster domestic buffers. Energy Minister Auttapol Rerkpiboon said Thailand ordered a suspension of petroleum exports and had 61 days of oil supply when combining domestic stocks and crude already in transit, while preparing to use the Oil Fuel Fund to help stabilise domestic prices if global benchmarks rise further.
In global markets, Brent rose about 6% to around $82.68 per barrel in the latest session reported by Reuters as investors priced in widening regional risks and potential shipping disruption around Hormuz.
Vitai said Thailand’s official 2026 GDP forecast of 1.9% was made before the latest escalation and warned that the economic impact would depend on how long elevated energy prices persist.
